Community disaster resilience using multi-hazard assessment during Covid-19: The case of Denpasar, Indonesia

As tourism and its related sectors have flourished in Bali Province, Denpasar Municipality, as the capital, has attracted significant urbanization. As a result of this development tendency, the city has become the densest location in the Bali Area. Denpasar Municipality is suffering with urban issues such as waste, land-use changing, housing bubble, and cultural asset loss as a result of the negative effects of urbanization. Not only from the degradation of urban livelihood threat, but Denpasar is also at risk from multi-hazard disasters such as earthquakes, tsunami, floods, extreme weather, forest and land fire, extreme waves, and beach erosion. Currently, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the decline of the tourism business, have forced Denpasar Municipality's resilience to the edge.In addition, to address the threat of disaster and urban issues in Denpasar, this research was conducted to analyze the resilience in the city. Yet, the previous studies have not been addressed the resilience of the urban crisis and disaster in a holistic approach. First, the semi-qualitative research by CDRI (Climate Disaster Resilience Index) Framework was conducted to measure the urban resilience in Denpasar. The result of five parameters (physical, social, institutional, economic, and environment) reveals that West Denpasar has the highest resilience score, followed by South, North, and East Denpasar. In addition, to assess the supporting and restricting resilience factors in Denpasar, a qualitative approach using semi-structured interviews with different responsible institutions for disaster management in Denpasar was undertaken. The result shows that sufficient infrastructure and facilities, bonus demographic, collaboration with the private sector, sufficient information access, and control from the government are the supporting factors of resilience while urbanization challenge, budget shifting, the management of the problem, the ownership of the asset, collaboration with the community and focus on physical loss and damage are the restraining factors of resilience in Denpasar Municipality.

Risk perception of compound emergencies: A household survey on flood evacuation and sheltering behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Compound hazards are derived from independent disasters that occur simultaneously. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the coupling of low-probability high-impact climate events has introduced a novel form of conflicting stressors that inhibits the operation of traditional logistics developed for single-hazard emergencies. The competing goals of hindering virus contagion and expediting massive evacuation have posed unique challenges for community safety. Yet, how a community perceives associated risks has been debated. This research utilized a web-based survey to explore the relationship between residents' perceptions of conflicting risks and emergency choices made during a historic compound event, the flooding in 2020 in Michigan, US that coincided with the pandemic. After the event, postal mail was randomly sent to 5,000 households living in the flooded area, collecting 556 responses. We developed two choice models for predicting survivors' evacuation options and sheltering length. The impact of sociodemographic factors on perceptions of COVID-19 risks was also examined. The results revealed greater levels of concern among females, democrats, and the economically inactive population. The relationship between evacuation choice and concern about virus exposure was dependent upon the number of seniors in the household. Concern about a lack of mask enforcement particularly discouraged evacuees from extended sheltering.

Exploring the links between flood events and the COVID-19 infection cases in Romania in the new multi-hazard-prone era.

The occurrence of flood events amid the COVID-19 pandemic represents a prominent part of the emerging multi-hazard landscape, as floods are one of the most frequent and destructive natural hazards. This spatial and temporal overlap of hydrological and epidemiological hazards translates into compounded negative effects, causing a shift in the hazard management paradigm, in which hazard interaction takes centre stage. This paper calls into question whether the river flood events that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania and the way that they were managed had an impact on the infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus at county scale. To this end, hazard management data concerning the flood events that were severe enough to impose the evacuation of the population were corroborated with COVID-19 confirmed cases data. A definite link between the flood events and the dynamics of COVID-19 cases registered in the selected counties is difficult to identify, but the analysis shows that all flood events were followed by various size increases in the COVID-19 confirmed cases at the end of the incubation time range. The findings are critically interpreted by providing viral load and social-related contexts, allowing a proper understanding of the interactions between concurrent hazards.

A comprehensive multi‐hazard risk assessment model for an urban agglomeration with multiple factors

To assist the Department of Emergency Management in understanding the overall risk characteristics and situation of an urban agglomeration for a reasonable risk prevention and control strategy, this study developed a comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment model for an urban agglomeration with multiple factors. The proposed model includes disaster probability and disaster loss sub-models. The model evaluated four types of disaster risk in urban agglomerations: natural disasters, accidental disasters, public health incidents, and social security incidents. In addition, a variety of factors were integrated into the model, including the socioeconomic foundation of urban agglomerations, the oligopoly effect of core cities, historical disaster losses, the effect of disaster chains, the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation, and intercity coordinated rescue capabilities. Finally, the risk assessment model was applied to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. The assessment results were compared to the distribution of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in the target urban agglomeration. The results showed that after analyzing the risk characteristics and evaluating the risk levels, the model not only showed the comprehensive risk levels and distribution of urban agglomerations but also revealed the high-risk areas and the key points of risk prevention and control. More importantly, the results obtained through the model can facilitate the strategic planning of disaster prevention and mitigation for urban agglomerations. © 2022

Natural multi-hazard risk perception and educational insights among Geography and Tourism students and graduates amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Multi-hazard risk perception is an emerging research topic that has been gaining more and more interest since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, due to the unprecedented interactions between the management practices of the pandemic and of other co-occurring natural hazards, and to the compounded impact of these multi-hazards. This paper aims to investigate the specialization and study level-dependent differences concerning multi-hazard risk perception and hazard-related education insights of future potential specialists in natural hazard-induced risk management and tourism reconstruction. These differences were explored by applying a multi-layer questionnaire on 547 Geography and Tourism students and graduates from two universities in Iași City (Romania) and Novi Sad (Serbia), and performing descriptive and differential statistical analyses. The statistically significant differences that emerged refer to estimations of the impact level of the Covid-19 pandemic and of other natural hazards at different spatial scales and on different socio-economic activities, on the training/career of the respondents, and to the hazard-related education improvements. Up to date, none of the papers in the existing literature integrate both the Covid-19 pandemic and the co-occurrent natural hazards as objects of students' perception, which makes the present study a starting point for such research endeavours.

A comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment model for an urban agglomeration with multiple factors

To assist the Department of Emergency Management in understanding the overall risk characteristics and situation of an urban agglomeration for a reasonable risk prevention and control strategy, this study developed a comprehensive multi-hazard risk assessment model for an urban agglomeration with multiple factors. The proposed model includes disaster probability and disaster loss sub-models. The model evaluated four types of disaster risk in urban agglomerations: natural disasters, accidental disasters, public health incidents, and social security incidents. In addition, a variety of factors were integrated into the model, including the socioeconomic foundation of urban agglomerations, the oligopoly effect of core cities, historical disaster losses, effect of disaster chains, ability of disaster prevention and mitigation, and intercity coordinated rescue capabilities. Finally, the risk assessment model was applied to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. The assessment results were compared to the distribution of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in the target urban agglomeration. The results showed that after analyzing the risk characteristics and evaluating the risk levels, the model not only showed the comprehensive risk levels and distribution of urban agglomerations, but also revealed the high-risk areas and the key points of risk prevention and control. More importantly, the results obtained through the model can facilitate the strategic planning of disaster prevention and mitigation for urban agglomerations.

Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy to advance multi-hazard disaster risk management.

COVID-19 challenged all national emergency management systems worldwide overlapping with other natural hazards. We framed a 'parallel phases' Disaster Risk Management (DRM) model to overcome the limitations of the existing models when dealing with complex multi-hazard risk conditions. We supported the limitations analysing Italian Red Cross data on past and ongoing emergencies including COVID-19 and we outlined three guidelines for advancing multi-hazard DRM: (i) exploiting the low emergency intensity of slow-onset hazards for preparedness actions; (ii) increasing the internal resources and making them available for international support; (iii) implementing multi-hazard seasonal impact-based forecasts to foster the planning of anticipatory actions.

Maintaining critical infrastructure resilience to natural hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic: hurricane preparations by US energy companies.

The COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to compromise the ability of critical infrastructure utilities to respond to or mitigate natural hazards like wildfires and hurricanes. This article describes the ways that an energy organization, the regional transmission operator PJM, is preparing for hurricanes during the COVID-19 pandemic. PJM is using a combination of technological and organizational processes to prepare for hurricanes during the pandemic. Activities include the development of a third control room to increase redundancy and maintaining social distance at control center, investment in more resilient communications technology to maintain connectivity, and taking a holistic approach to identifying issues related to supply chain and fuel security. With this mix of organizational and technological processes, we argue that critical infrastructure resilience should be understood as a sociotechnical construct and identify several recommendations for improving resilience. The article has implications for policymakers working to maintain infrastructure resilience to natural hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Infectious Diseases Associated with Hydrometeorological Hazards in Europe: Disaster Risk Reduction in the Context of the Climate Crisis and the Ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic.

Hydrometeorological hazards comprise a wide range of events, mainly floods, storms, droughts, and temperature extremes. Floods account for the majority of the related disasters in both developed and developing countries. Flooding alters the natural balance of the environment and frequently establish a favorable habitat for pathogens and vectors to thrive. Diseases caused by pathogens that require vehicle transmission from host to host (waterborne) or a host/vector as part of their life cycle (vector-borne) are those most likely to be affected by flooding. Considering the most notable recent destructive floods events of July 2021 that affected several Central Europe countries, we conducted a systematic literature review in order to identify documented sporadic cases and outbreaks of infectious diseases in humans in Europe, where hydrometeorological hazards, mainly floods, were thought to have been involved. The occurrence of water-, rodent-, and vector-borne diseases in several European countries is highlighted, as flooding and the harsh post-flood conditions favor their emergence and transmission. In this context, strategies for prevention and management of infectious disease outbreaks in flood-prone and flood-affected areas are also proposed and comprise pre- and post-flood prevention measures, pre- and post-outbreak prevention measures, as well as mitigation actions when an infectious disease outbreak finally occurs. Emphasis is also placed on the collision of floods, flood-related infectious disease outbreaks, and the evolving COVID-19 pandemic, which may result in unprecedented multi-hazard conditions and requires a multi-hazard approach for the effective disaster management and risk reduction.

Multi-Hazard Emergency Response for Geological Hazards Amid the Evolving COVID-19 Pandemic: Good Practices and Lessons Learned from Earthquake Disaster Management in Greece

Since the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented global disruption with considerable impact on human activities. However, natural hazards and related disasters do not wait for SARS-CoV-2 to vanish, resulting in the emergence of many conflicting issues between earthquake emergency response actions and pandemic mitigation measures. In this study, these conflicting issues are highlighted through the cases of four earthquakes that struck Greece at different phases of the pandemic. The earthquake effects on the local population and on the natural environment and building stock form ideal conditions for local COVID-19 outbreaks in earthquake-affected communities. However, the implementation of response actions and mitigation measures in light of a multi-hazard approach to disaster risk reduction and disaster risk management has led not only to the maintenance of pre-existing low viral load in the earthquake-affected areas, but in some cases even to their reduction. This fact suggests that the applied measures are good practice and an important lesson for improving disaster management in the future. Taking into account the aforementioned, a series of actions are proposed for the effective management of the impact of a geological hazard in the midst of an evolving biological hazard with epidemiological characteristics similar to the COVID-19 pandemic.

A Concise Appraisal of Cameroon’s Hazard Risk Profile: Multi-Hazard Inventories, Causes, Consequences and Implications for Disaster Management

The paucity of a comprehensive document on Cameroon’s hazard/disaster risk profile is a limitation to the country wide risk assessment and adequate disaster resilience. This article narrows this gap by retrospectively exploring Cameroon’s hazard/disaster profile. This has been achieved through an investigative approach that applies a set of qualitative methods to derive and articulate an inventory and analysis of hazards/disasters in Cameroon. The findings indicate that Cameroon has a wide array and high incidence/frequency of hazards that have had devastating consequences. The hazards have been structured along four profiles: a classification of all hazard types plaguing Cameroon into natural, potentially socio-natural, technological, and social and anthropogenic hazards;occurrence/origin of the hazards;their impacts/effects to the ‘at risk’ communities/populace and potential disaster management or mitigation measures. In-depth analysis indicate that natural hazards have the lowest frequency but the potential to cause the highest fatalities in a single incident;potentially socio-natural hazards affect the largest number of people and the widest geographical areas, technological hazards have the highest frequency of occurrence;while social/anthropogenic hazards are the newest in the country but have caused the highest population displacement. Arguably, the multi-hazard/disaster inventory presented in this article serves as a vital preliminary step to a more comprehensive profile of Cameroon’s disaster risk profile.

Evaluating the network of stakeholders in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems for multiple hazards amidst biological outbreaks: Sri Lanka as a case in point.

Synergized impacts of simultaneous hazards amidst COVID-19 have called for the need for highly collaborative multi-sectoral approaches for disaster preparedness planning. In such a context, this study aims at evaluating the network of stakeholders in the National Early Warning System of Sri Lanka during preparedness planning. Social Network Analysis was used to visualise the network of stakeholders for selected hazard scenarios. Furthermore, a series of key informant interviews were conducted focusing on disaster preparedness planning during the recent multiple hazard scenarios. The findings highlight the need for a framework to guide the stakeholder coordination in preparedness planning for multiple hazards.

Overlapping heat and COVID-19 risk in New York City.

New York City, the most populated urban center in the United States, is exposed to a variety of natural hazards. These range from extratropical storms and coastal flooding to extreme heat and cold temperatures, and have been shown to unevenly impact the various vulnerable groups in the city. As the COVID-19 pandemic hit in March 2020 and the city became an early epicenter, disparities in exposure led to widely uneven infection and mortality rates. This study maps the overlapping heat and COVID-19 risks in New York City with a multi-hazard risk framework during Summer 2020. To do so, we simulate neighborhood scale temperatures using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a multi-layer urban parameterization. Simulation outputs were combined with zipcode-scale COVID-19 and sociodemographic data to compute a multi-hazard risk index. Our results highlight several regions where high social vulnerability, COVID-19 infection rates, and heat coincide. Moreover, we use the local indicators of spatial association technique to map regions of spatially correlated high multi-hazard risk in the NYC boroughs of The Bronx and parts of Brooklyn and Queens. These high risk locations account for nearly a quarter of the city's population, with households earning less than half than those in the lowest risk zones.

Cascading effects of mass gatherings on COVID-19 infections from a multi-hazard perspective: A case study of New York city

The devastating economic and societal impacts of COVID-19 can be substantially compounded by other secondary events that increase individuals' exposure through mass gatherings such as protests or sheltering due to a natural disaster. Based on the Crichton's Risk Triangle model, this paper proposes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation framework to estimate the impact of mass gatherings on COVID-19 infections by adjusting levels of exposure and vulnerability. To this end, a case study of New York City is considered, at which the impact of mass gathering at public shelters due to a hypothetical hurricane will be studied. The simulation results will be discussed in the context of determining effective policies for reducing the impact of multi-hazard generalizability of our approach to other secondary events that can cause mass gatherings during a pandemic will also be discussed. © 2021 Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM. All rights reserved.

Multi-hazard hospital evacuation planning during disease outbreaks using agent-based modeling.

As different types of hazards, including natural and man-made, can occur simultaneously, to implement an integrated and holistic risk management, a multi-hazard perspective on disaster risk management, including preparedness and planning, must be taken for a safer and more resilient society. Considering the emerging challenges that the COVID-19 pandemic has been introducing to regular hospital operations, there is a need to adapt emergency plans with the changing conditions, as well. Evacuation of patients with different mobility disabilities is a complicated process that needs planning, training, and efficient decision-making. These protocols need to be revisited for multi-hazard scenarios such as an ongoing disease outbreak during which additional infection control protocols might be in place to prevent transmission. Computational models can provide insights on optimal emergency evacuation strategies, such as the location of isolation units or alternative evacuation prioritization strategies. This study introduces a non-ICU patient classification framework developed based on available patient mobility data. An agent-based model was developed to simulate the evacuation of the emergency department at the Johns Hopkins Hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic due to a fire emergency. The results show a larger nursing team can reduce the median and upper bound of the 95% confidence interval of the evacuation time by 36% and 33%, respectively. A dedicated exit door for COVID-19 patients is relatively less effective in reducing the median time, while it can reduce the upper bound by more than 50%.

Compound hazards: An examination of how hurricane protective actions could increase transmission risk of COVID-19.

Hurricane season brings new and complex challenges as we continue to battle the COVID-19 pandemic. In May 2020, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted nearly twice the normal number of tropical storms and hurricanes this season, while projections of COVID-19 models continue to rise in the United States as the Atlantic hurricane season progresses. Our research examines the critical intersection of hurricane response and public health in Harris County, Texas. We examine a hypothetical case of the 2017 Hurricane Harvey occurring amid the current pandemic. This research uses point of interest visitations as location intelligence data provided by SafeGraph together with Social Vulnerability Index and historical flood data to examine the critical intersection of natural hazard planning and response and the COVID-19 pandemic to assess the risks of a compound hazard situation. COVID-19 transmission hotspots and businesses in a community due to storm preparation activity were identified. The main drivers of transmission risk arise from overall pandemic exposure and increased interpersonal contact during hurricane preparation. Residents of health-risk areas will need to make logistical arrangements to visit alternative medical facilities for treatments related to either COVID-19 or physical impacts, such as injuries, due to the hurricane risks. Points of interest needed for disaster preparation are more likely to be situated in high-risk areas, therefore making cross-community spread more likely. Moreover, greater susceptibility could arise from social vulnerability (socioeconomic status and demographic factors) and disrupted access to healthcare facilities. Results from this study can be used to identify high-risk areas for COVID-19 transmission for prioritization in planning for temporary healthcare centers and other essential services in low-risk areas. Understanding the interplay between disaster preparation and the restrictive environment laid out by the pandemic is critical for community leaders and public health officials for ensuring the population has sufficient access to essential infrastructure services. The findings from this study can help guide the direction of disaster planning and pandemic response strategies and policies.

Situational assessment of hospital facilities for modernization purposes and resilience improvement.

Modernization of hospital facilities is one of the objectives of administrators and decision-makers of healthcare systems. Hospital facilities are both complex and critical infrastructures, because they are characterized by high level of interconnections, dynamism, technological innovation, and because they offer health and social essential services. Decision-makers have to implement modernization strategies of hospital facilities in order to guarantee a high standard of care and a resilient response during disasters and emergencies. The critical role played by hospital facilities is acknowledge by the international action programs, including the 2030 Agenda of United Nations for Sustainable Development, and it has been emphasized by the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper illustrates the RADAR-Hospital Facilities methodology (RADAR-HF) developed for the situational assessment of the physical environment of hospital facilities. RADAR-HF provides the decision-makers with an overview of the main aspects for modernization (safety, functionality, sustainability, adaptability, comfort) and substantial information for planning interventions, considering hospital facilities as interconnected systems. The outcomes are represented by ad-hoc designed graphical indicators and overview-tools, that summarize the status-conditions of one or a set of existing hospital facilities, the upgrading needs, and the best occupancy of facilities. Decision-makers could use RADAR-HF to define integrated modernization strategies with resilience improvement, monitor the situation of the facilities, and understand the effectiveness of interventions. The paper ends showing the results obtained in a research project, in which RADAR-HF has been applied to assess the existing hospital facilities of the Friuli Venezia Giulia region (North-East of Italy).

The next big earthquake may inflict a multi-hazard crisis - Insights from COVID-19, extreme weather and resilience in peripheral cities of Israel.

The occurrence of a natural disaster in an area already coping with an epidemic, constitutes a multi-hazard event. Such events are more likely than ever during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In regions that seasonally experience extreme-weather disasters, such multi-hazard crises are imminent. People living along the Dead Sea Fault and in the Negev are used to harsh weather conditions and to the hardship of living in isolation. While self-reliance and community-support are often the norm in the daily life of residents in in peripheral communities, in an emergency they may be crucial for survival. Worldwide remote communities with limited response and medical infrastructure and resources may struggle to cope with the aftermath of an earthquake while potentially coping with a concurrent epidemic or extreme weather. In this work we focus on the effect of concurring disasters and seasonal stressors. In particular we discuss how various disasters would affect the Covid-19 infection rate, and we demonstrate that in Israel's periphery cities, heat-stress is a consistent and significant seasonal stressor that would hamper emergency and recovery operations. We also suggest that transient tourist population in these remote cities is expected to burden local emergency efforts and facilities. A seasonal over burden parameter is proposed to describe how seasonal tourism and weather conditions enhance the hardship and risk in a multi-hazard situation. A case study shows that high-resolution spatial analysis of risk and preparedness together with a temporal analysis of seasonal effects, may be used to detect specific neighborhoods with high or low resilience and capacity to cope with disasters. Our work demonstrates the need for spatial and temporal, multi-hazard analysis for improving local resilience and emergency plans in periphery cities and communities exposed to seasonal harsh weather.